Research on mobile games and monetization
The article critiques traditional monetization strategies based on psychological traps like the Sunk Cost Fallacy and emphasizes the success of a value-driven approach in F2P monetization, specifically through the redesign of the Step-Up Gacha. By prioritizing increasing value over pressure tactics, greater player engagement and revenue were achieved.
The key to successful gacha systems lies in balancing expected value and player experience. Understanding probability distributions helps create a fair economy while ensuring players feel satisfied and engaged. Focus on fair worst outcomes, meaningful jackpots, and how often players should feel lucky or unlucky to enhance trust and excitement in the game.
The author argues for setting higher prices in game monetization, emphasizing that players buy for emotional satisfaction rather than objective value. Pricing should stem from player behavior, not item worth. Effective strategies include ensuring spending feels rewarding and designing tiered experiences for varying spender categories to maximize revenue.
Blizzard Entertainment’s evolution highlights the tension between creative vision and commercial demands. As it transitioned from a small studio to a major player, the need for structured processes clashed with its organic development style. The success of live service models required a balance between quality and quantity, challenging Blizzard’s traditional approach and exposing fundamental misalignments with public ownership.
The “Red Light by Default Handbook” advocates a disciplined approach to mobile game development, emphasizing data-driven decision-making. It suggests assuming failure until proven otherwise, understanding player motivations, and focusing on high-value users. By setting ambitious targets and prioritizing speed in decisions, teams can optimize resources and minimize costly mistakes.
In 2025, soft launching a game requires a strategic approach rather than relying on traditional KPI assessments. Growth is gradual, and KPIs reflect user interaction rather than game quality. Focus on binary metrics like retention, conversion, and redeposit. Fast, aggressive user acquisition is essential for timely, confident decision-making.
Alexandre Macmillan 